🔗 Share this article

Two days to go.

The English side's first Test in Australia begins on the morning of Friday.

With the help of cricket statistics experts, we examine where the most eagerly-anticipated Ashes series in years could be decided.

It's tough to make runs, isn't it?

Batters on each side of the Ashes rivalry might be wondering why they are even planning to show up.

A lot of the pre-series discussion has focused on the apparent difficulty of scoring runs, particularly for the opening match on a Perth pitch described as a "lush, challenging surface".

Regarding batting in Australia, especially against fast bowling, no country has been more difficult in which to accumulate runs over the last five years.

There are two reasons for this: pitches and cricket balls.

Overall, the surfaces prepared in Australia have recently proved to be the quickest, highest bouncing and among the most inconsistent in the world.

Pace and inconsistent bounce are the perfect recipe for difficult batting conditions.

A common belief from English cricket paints the Kookaburra cricket ball used in this country as a useless tool for a fast bowler.

A new version of the Kookaburra was rolled out six years ago, resulting in increased seam movement.

Seam is a much bigger weapon than swing in this country.

Since the new Kookaburra, pace bowlers are conceding 25 runs per wicket in Australia.

Test match cricket is about problem solving.

When bowlers dominate, batsmen's contributions can be the deciding factor, and vice-versa.

Should this series be dominated by the ball, a batsman could have the opportunity to be the difference between the two teams.

What’s happening with the Australian pace attack?

On this occasion, England have arrived in Australia with their pace attack largely intact, while the home side are the ones hit by injuries.

Skipper Pat Cummins will be absent for the opening match with a back issue, and Josh Hazlewood is unavailable for an unspecified time because of a hamstring injury.

Cummins, Josh Hazlewood and Mitchell Starc were first united as a trio for the 2017-18 Ashes.

Since then, they have combined to claim 81% of the wickets taken by Australian fast bowlers in matches in Australia.

The Australian team have seldom needed alternatives because of the effectiveness and durability of the 'leading trio'.

On the occasions Australia have required support, Boland has been sensational, taking 62 dismissals in 14 Tests at an average below 17.

Aside from Scott Boland, other bowlers of Australia's supporting cast have stepped up.

Michael Neser, Jhye Richardson and James Pattinson all average under 30 in home Tests.

The last time Australia entered a home Test without both key bowlers, and were defeated, was in the year 2012.

The past two times they have competed in Australia without the pair, they have triumphed by a combined 694 runs, including a victory against England in the Adelaide Test previously.

In infrequent cases Australia have had to look beyond their superstar pacemen, outcomes have not been affected – The tourists should pay attention.

Challenging Openings

Recall the time England could not find an opener to partner Alastair Cook?

Sir Chef changed partners faster than Watford go through managers.

No more.

Ever since Duckett and Zak Crawley were paired at the top of the England order at the end of 2022, no opening pair in the world has scored more runs together.

Their success as a combination has been a reason in Zak Crawley being backed through some inconsistent times.

Crawley, who memorably hit the first ball of the last Ashes series for four, has also been recognized as having the technique for Australian conditions.

His average increases when the pace increases.

In comparison, the Australian opening lineup is in a constant state of flux, yet to fill the gap left by David Warner.

Following Warner's departure at the start of 2024, Khawaja has walked out with five different partners in 15 matches.

Yet to debut Weatherald looks set to become the sixth in 16 Tests on Friday, giving Australia an all-left-handed opening combo.

It's not only the opening pair that has posed issues for Australia.

Labuschagne, Australia's long-term number three, was shifted to open for the WTC final, then left out completely.

Home performances has brought him back, most likely returning to number three.

Across seven matches in 2025, the Australian top order have a combined average of 25.37.

Only the opening trios of Zimbabwe and West Indies have done worse.

Battle of Spin

For two so evenly-matched teams, there is a single department where Australia are unquestionably superior – spin.

Australia's Nathan Lyon, with 562 Test wickets of him, is among the best finger-spin bowlers to ever play.

England's Shoaib Bashir is a moderately successful gamble, looking short of form after a broken finger, while Will Jacks is mainly a batsman.

It would seem logical for the home team to want Nathan Lyon at the forefront, but bowling spin has been incredibly hard work in Australia for the past 10 years.

During that period, spinners have averaged almost 44 in this country, though Lyon's record largely stands up compared to the struggles of overseas spinners.

Lyon's other issue is physically getting on to bowl.

Remember the effectiveness of pace bowling?

It is reducing Lyon's time with ball in hand.

During the 2017-18 series here, Nathan Lyon was averaging 50 overs per Test.

In the previous year, in five matches against the Indian team, it was half that number.

Test matches in Australia are lasting about 25% less time since the updated ball was brought in, meaning the spinner has less space to make an impact.

Favorable Conditions?

The English team have a depressing habit of being beaten in an overseas Ashes before Santa Claus has set off.

Traditionally, the series began in Brisbane, where they have failed to win since 1986.

Recently, that has been followed by a day-night Test in Adelaide.

England have a single victory in seven pink-ball Tests worldwide, while Australia have triumphed in 13 out of 14.

Then comes Perth, a city England have visited on 14 occasions since 1970 and won only one time, against a depleted Australia in 1978.

On this tour, the first three stops on the tour are the same, only in a different order and under altered conditions.

The Perth Test hosts an series opener for the first occasion, not at the fabled Waca – site of past English struggles – but the modern Perth Stadium.

It remains a difficult task, though one the tourists tackle with no historical baggage.

The Gabba is the venue for the second Test, the day-nighter.

The last time Australia competed in a day-night Test at the Brisbane, they were surprised by West Indies.

Likewise, the Australians are now not used to playing day matches at the typical floodlit ground Adelaide.

Across two traditional Tests played in the Adelaide since 2014, Australia lost one, to the Indian team, in 2018.

The revised fixture list gives England a new opportunity at beginning an overseas series positively, though with risks.

The home side have won four out of five matches played at the new Perth ground, though the one defeat came in the latest game – against India the previous year.

Every Test at the new ground has been claimed by the team setting a target.

The English often complicate day-night matches, when data indicate the pink cricket ball does not perform much differently from its traditional red ball.

The challenge in {day-night matches|