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Elections are now in progress for parliamentary elections in the Netherlands, with current polling data indicating that the far-right leader Geert Wilders and his Freedom party (PVV) may repeat their emerge victorious, although analysts believe the party stands little chance of joining the next government.

Polling Trends and Election Dynamics

Wilders' party, which previously pulled off a surprise first-place finish and established a multi-party all-conservative coalition that lasted barely a year, is now marginally ahead in surveys and is projected to win between 24 to 28 MPs in the 150-seat house of representatives.

Nevertheless, the far-right party's support has dipped since the previous election, when it won 37 seats. All major parties have stated they will not entering into a coalition with Wilders, who triggered the fall of the previous government in June amid a dispute concerning his radical anti-refugee plans.

Key Contenders and Projections

Following a election period focused on issues such as migration, medical expenses, and the nation's severe housing crisis, the left-leaning GL/PvdA coalition, led by former European commissioner Frans Timmermans, is running a close second, projected to win between 22 to 26 parliamentary seats.

Also forecast to do well is the liberal-progressive D66, projected to increase its seat count nearly fivefold to 21-25 seats, while the right-leaning Christian Democrats (CDA) is anticipated to significantly increase its seat tally to between 18 to 22.

Members of the previous government – which included the Freedom Party, VVD, populist Farmer-Citizen Movement (BBB), and centrist New Social Contract (NSC) – are all forecast to lose seats, with some facing heavy losses.

Electoral System and Political Division

Under the proportional Dutch system, gaining just 0.67% of the vote yields a party one MP. Of the 27 parties contesting the election – which include parties for the over-50s, youth parties, animal rights parties, basic income advocates, and sports parties – up to 16 could enter the legislature.

This high degree of fragmentation means that no single party is expected to secure a majority, and the Netherlands has been governed by coalitions – often including several groups in recent governments – for over 100 years.

Post-Election Scenarios

The PVV leader claimed that "democracy will be dead" in the Netherlands if the PVV ends up as the biggest group yet is shut out of power. But, opponents and experts argue that winning the most seats does not guarantee government participation and that any governing alliance with a majority is a democratic outcome.

Although the election result is uncertain and coalition talks may require several months, analysts indicate that following the most radical administration in recent memory, the future government is expected to be a inclusive coalition led by either the moderate left or moderate right.

Election Day Details

Polling stations, including those in the miniature city Madurodam in the capital and the Anne Frank museum in Amsterdam, began operations at 7.30am (6:30 GMT) and will close at 9:00 PM. A usually accurate post-voting survey is anticipated soon after the polls close.

After the vote, an official negotiator will explore potential governing alliances that could command a majority in parliament. Potential partners will then draft a governing pact for the coming term and must face a vote of confidence in parliament before taking office.